Drought Class Probability Analysis for the Küçük Menderes River Basin

Abstract

Drought is a complex natural hazard that may take many years to develop and that has significant effects on human life, environmental systems, and the economy. Its impacts may also be serious and costly. This study, considering the fact that drought is a significant natural disaster, aimed to investigate the characteristics of drought in the Küçük Menderes River Basin. Among several drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were used for drought analysis. SPI and SDI were applied to the monthly precipitation data of Selçuk and Ödemis meteorological stations with nos. 17854 and 17822, and to the monthly flow data of Selçuk and Bülbüller flow gauging stations with nos. E06A001 and D06A012, respectively. Drought classes for each month were obtained through the referred drought indices. Using the drought classes, meteorological and hydrological droughts were statistically investigated at a regional scale by determining the drought classes’ occurrence probabilities, the expected residence time in each drought severity class, the expected first transition time, and the drought class with the highest probability of occurrence in the near future.